Table 1.5

October 22, 2011

My FM320 student Han Wang pointed out that Table 1.5 is not right. It is supposed to have a two tailed probability of outcomes, but the %1 number is 1-the one tailed prob, and the rest are one tailed. So, here are the correct numbers. Set the volatility to 1.16 as per Table 1.2, and get

1%0.3886496
2%0.08468295
3%0.009703866
5%1.630002e-05
15%3.007448e-38
23%1.721029e-87
with the R code to do the calculation
2*pnorm(-23,sd=1.16)